China’s ‘slow-motion revolution’ has stalled
By TIMOTHY CHEEK, JEFFREY WASSERSTROM
Whatever happened to the Chinese revolution?
Not the dynasty-toppling 1911 revolution. Not the Communist-led 1949
uprising. Not the 1989 struggle, sometimes called an abortive
revolution, which was crushed by a massacre on June 4.
No, the revolution we have in mind is a very recent one, which the
journalist Ian Johnson, in his 2005 book "Wild Grass," memorably
called a "slow-motion revolution." At the turn of the millennium, it
looked as though China was moving gradually, sometimes glacially,
toward becoming a more open — as opposed to just more prosperous and
powerful — country. China’s rise continues. But that slow-motion
revolution has been stopped in its tracks.
Johnson’s claim was not that of a starry-eyed fantasist convinced that
China was predestined to become Americanized. He simply envisioned a
China where, from year to year, there would be fewer limits on what
one could talk about, and more ways to expose official malfeasance and
gain redress for basic grievances. He documented the small-scale but
substantive gains being made by brave rights lawyers, moderate civil
society activists and envelope-pushing journalists who strove not to
overturn the Communist Party but to get it to do a better job of
living up to its professed goals.
As recently as 2009, this slow-motion revolution still seemed alive.
The party did tighten control in 2008 as it strove to ensure that the
Olympic Games went well. And the party always dealt ruthlessly with
organized challengers. But the watchword was, as a bartender summed it
up to one of us: Meiyou yundong, shenme dou keyi — if it isn’t a
movement, anything goes.
Writing in 2009 to mark the June 4 anniversary, Lijia Zhang, who
marched in 1989, described the situation well. Twenty years before,
she said, people like her had felt trapped "in a cage" and longed to
be free. Since 1989, the bars of the cage had moved farther away. They
knew that the cage still existed, but it was easier to imagine that it
Today, however, the bars are closing in again. Many rights lawyers and
moderate civil society activists have been jailed. In March, five
feminists were summarily detained in Beijing with no legal process,
solely for planning events publicizing the need for greater equality.
Censorship of the Internet has increased. Chinese academics have been
warned to watch what they say in class. They should not promote
"Western values" or "threaten social stability" by talking about
social inequities and historical mistakes made by the party.
These warnings, new to the current generation, have appalled and
surprised some young intellectuals. Their elders, though, feel a
depressing sense of deja vu. Some say to us, in effect, "We’re back to
the 1980s, but without the hope we had then."
What explains this shift?
Party leader Xi Jinping seems to believe he must stamp out all hints
of dissent in order to save China from the instability that has beset
various post-communist societies in Eurasia and post-authoritarian
ones in the Middle East.
Above all, Xi is determined not to end up being China’s counterpart to
Mikhail Gorbachev, a figure Chinese leaders disdain for allowing the
Soviet Union to implode under his watch. Xi allegedly derided
Gorbachev, in a speech given behind closed doors, for failing to be
"manly" enough to take tough action when necessary a quarter-century
ago — a contrast, presumably, to what the tougher Deng Xiaoping had
done when ordering tanks to roll into Beijing in 1989.
As the journalist William Dobson argued in "The Dictator’s Learning
Curve," modern authoritarian rulers are intensely aware of the
challenge their counterparts are facing, and they’re stealing from one
In the 1970s, Singapore’s leaders began appealing to traditional
Confucian values while defending one-party rule and pushing for rapid
development. Later, Deng’s successors Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao echoed
that strategy in China.
More recently, Xi and Russian President Vladimir Putin, who share a
disparaging view of Gorbachev, have been drawing closer. It’s entirely
possible that the former has tried to curtail Chinese feminist
activities because he wants to nip in the bud the kind of problem the
latter faced with Pussy Riot.
Xi’s efforts are popular in some Chinese circles. That’s in part
because he’s not only moving against threats to the party (real and
imagined) but also the party itself. Xi has pledged to remove
notoriously corrupt officials, clean up messy bureaucracies and
reinvigorate the party rank and file, all in the name of realizing the
so-called Chinese dream of national resurgence.
But there’s another reason some in China accept Xi’s methods. A
quarter-century ago, there was a widespread belief that Western ways
had proved superior to Soviet ones in generating wealth and delivering
social justice. The years since then have not been kind to this
Beijing does not have to make up tall tales to cast the West in a
negative light. It can just point to the disastrous invasions of Iraq
and Afghanistan, the 2008 financial crisis, Eurozone economic
anxieties, American legislative paralysis, the Edward Snowden NSA
revelations and the latest police shootings. It is not just party
pronouncements against Western values that inhibit Chinese activists
from holding up the West as a model; our own faults and foibles are
clear to see.
Timothy Cheek, of the University of British Columbia, is the author of
"The Intellectual in Modern Chinese History." Jeffrey Wasserstrom, of
UC Irvine, is the author of "China in the 21st Century: What Everyone
Needs to Know."